“Oh look,” my wife said at the breakfast table this morning. “The (Toronto) Star has another Twitter story.”
“Yeah” I said, somewhat absently.
“Didn’t they just have one yesterday?” she remembered.
I pawed the pile of paper to find the Saturday Star. “You’re right,” I said. “And actually, yesterday it was TWO stories!”
Anyone who’s paid any attention to mainstream media lately might have noticed this is not a unique to the Star. Many news outlets, newspapers in particular it seems, are covering Twitter with increasing voracity.
In tribute to that great and recently departed television series Battlestar Galactic, I would submit that “all of this has happened before, and it will all happen again.”
The coverage of Twitter seems to be following a predictable pattern extremely similar to the coverage of other emerging social networks in the recent past. Twitter, arguably, is close to the apex of coverage that, if the pattern holds, will see both the volume and tone take a turn for the worse in the next few months. I believe the change in subject/tone for mainstream media coverage of social networks goes something like this:
What is X? — Pretty self-explanatory, early stories (perhaps in the form of sidebars or other short formats) explaining what the social network is, at least at a rudimentary level.
Why X is Silly — Usually in the form of editorial or as a part of a larger story, comments saying Twitter is “populated mainly by people keen to share the minutiae of their lives” and the like.
Why X is Great! — Stories about social/fundraising efforts like Twestival and other uses of the technology for fun and profit.
Guess What Celebrity is Using X Now? — This is about where Twitter is at right now — hey, look at which music star or mayor or basketball player is using it!
The Dark Side of X — This is where the Twitter coverage is (IMHO) most likely headed next. Remember stories about people having affairs on Second Life or Facebook bullying? Watch for similar stories about Twitter very soon.
X Doesn’t Live Up To Promise — I thought it was interesting that one of the most recent stories I’d seen on Second Life was about the British government defending spending a pretty paltry sum on experimenting with the virtual world as a meeting place. I couldn’t help but thinking that they would have almost certainly been universally praised for this effort two years ago, back when Second Life was all the rage.
Hey, What Ever Happened To X? — Seen any mainstream media stories on Myspace lately? Even though the social network is still used regularly by millions of users (probably far more than use Twitter) I don’t recall seeing a lot of stories about it specifically, except perhaps as part of laundry list of services lumped in with Facebook and Twitter. And perhaps that’s a good thing for Myspace — it’s possible that it is now just taken for granted as part of the landscape of services that we use online, like search or email. It will be interesting to see if Twitter gets to the same place before it falls off the mainstream media radar, and more interestingly if coverage of the NEXT big thing in social networks follows the same pattern.
I’ve created a graphic to illustrate both the change of tone and volume I believe this coverage pattern takes. Have a look, let me know if you see coverage of Twitter and other social networks following this or not.
Popularity: 31% [?]
Add to iTunes
RSS/XML Feed
Related Articles
4 users responded in this post
Spot on. Your analysis parallels my observations exactly.
I’d say you’re on to something here. Trouble is, once mainstream media evaporate, who will be left to provide all the gee-whiz coverage of the next wave of shiny new social networking toys?
Good piece Jay.
This concept, though, is not just for Twitter or social media and is a well established business “Hype Cycle” (coined by Gartner) that all/most new products/techs go through. The part you miss, I think, is the “plateau of productivity” when the product takes on real market hype after inflated hype subsides and people stop reporting. It is never as high a peak as the product once was at, but is actually a sustainable, revenue-generating product. Right now, Twitter is at the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and Facebook is tipping down the “Trough of Dissillusionment” – I would actually put Linked In in the “Slope of Enlightenment” as it has realized its biz model after going through both the other phases already (in around 2003-2006).
(See Microblogging in the link below…that was 2008 and I’d say it’s risen.)
http://www.problogger.net/archives/2009/01/20/the-hype-cycle-and-niche-blogging-what-they-mean-to-you-in-2009/
Thanks folks! Andrew, it’s an interesting question. I’ll continue to contend that the mainstream media will not evaporate, but we will see a huge shift in what is considered mainstream. I still think there is a big opportunity for new business models that will support both traditional media formats as well as lots of opportunities for new media. Advertising dollars are still being spent, and people still have as great an appetite for information as they ever did. Some smart folks will figure out how to make money with new models, and those that cling to old models will fall by the wayside.
JP — well the last time I stole and watered down a concept it was from Aristole, so at least this time I’m in the same century!
Thanks for the link, I had a look at the hype cycle (which I was vaguely aware of but clearly had never looked closely at) and you’re completely right about the gap in my model. I guess that’s why those Gartner guys get the big bucks, eh?
Leave A Reply
Please Note: Comment moderation maybe active so there is no need to resubmit your comments