Comments on: Mainstream Media and Social Networks: A Predictable Pattern http://mediadriving.com/2009/03/22/mainstream-media-and-social-networks-a-predictable-pattern/ A weekly podcast and blog about communications, content, messages and marketing. Toronto digital strategist and musician Jay Moonah is your host. Thu, 31 Dec 2009 00:10:02 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Jay http://mediadriving.com/2009/03/22/mainstream-media-and-social-networks-a-predictable-pattern/comment-page-1/#comment-5160 Jay Wed, 25 Mar 2009 01:10:10 +0000 http://mediadriving.com/?p=209#comment-5160 Thanks folks! Andrew, it's an interesting question. I'll continue to contend that the mainstream media will not evaporate, but we will see a huge shift in what is considered mainstream. I still think there is a big opportunity for new business models that will support both traditional media formats as well as lots of opportunities for new media. Advertising dollars are still being spent, and people still have as great an appetite for information as they ever did. Some smart folks will figure out how to make money with new models, and those that cling to old models will fall by the wayside. JP -- well the last time I stole and watered down a concept it was from Aristole, so at least this time I'm in the same century! :-) Thanks for the link, I had a look at the hype cycle (which I was vaguely aware of but clearly had never looked closely at) and you're completely right about the gap in my model. I guess that's why those Gartner guys get the big bucks, eh? Thanks folks! Andrew, it’s an interesting question. I’ll continue to contend that the mainstream media will not evaporate, but we will see a huge shift in what is considered mainstream. I still think there is a big opportunity for new business models that will support both traditional media formats as well as lots of opportunities for new media. Advertising dollars are still being spent, and people still have as great an appetite for information as they ever did. Some smart folks will figure out how to make money with new models, and those that cling to old models will fall by the wayside.

JP — well the last time I stole and watered down a concept it was from Aristole, so at least this time I’m in the same century! :-) Thanks for the link, I had a look at the hype cycle (which I was vaguely aware of but clearly had never looked closely at) and you’re completely right about the gap in my model. I guess that’s why those Gartner guys get the big bucks, eh?

]]> By: JP http://mediadriving.com/2009/03/22/mainstream-media-and-social-networks-a-predictable-pattern/comment-page-1/#comment-5159 JP Tue, 24 Mar 2009 19:39:56 +0000 http://mediadriving.com/?p=209#comment-5159 Good piece Jay. This concept, though, is not just for Twitter or social media and is a well established business “Hype Cycle” (coined by Gartner) that all/most new products/techs go through. The part you miss, I think, is the “plateau of productivity” when the product takes on real market hype after inflated hype subsides and people stop reporting. It is never as high a peak as the product once was at, but is actually a sustainable, revenue-generating product. Right now, Twitter is at the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and Facebook is tipping down the “Trough of Dissillusionment” – I would actually put Linked In in the “Slope of Enlightenment” as it has realized its biz model after going through both the other phases already (in around 2003-2006). (See Microblogging in the link below…that was 2008 and I’d say it’s risen.) http://www.problogger.net/archives/2009/01/20/the-hype-cycle-and-niche-blogging-what-they-mean-to-you-in-2009/ Good piece Jay.

This concept, though, is not just for Twitter or social media and is a well established business “Hype Cycle” (coined by Gartner) that all/most new products/techs go through. The part you miss, I think, is the “plateau of productivity” when the product takes on real market hype after inflated hype subsides and people stop reporting. It is never as high a peak as the product once was at, but is actually a sustainable, revenue-generating product. Right now, Twitter is at the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and Facebook is tipping down the “Trough of Dissillusionment” – I would actually put Linked In in the “Slope of Enlightenment” as it has realized its biz model after going through both the other phases already (in around 2003-2006).

(See Microblogging in the link below…that was 2008 and I’d say it’s risen.)
http://www.problogger.net/archives/2009/01/20/the-hype-cycle-and-niche-blogging-what-they-mean-to-you-in-2009/

]]> By: Andrew Careaga http://mediadriving.com/2009/03/22/mainstream-media-and-social-networks-a-predictable-pattern/comment-page-1/#comment-5157 Andrew Careaga Mon, 23 Mar 2009 15:52:46 +0000 http://mediadriving.com/?p=209#comment-5157 I'd say you're on to something here. Trouble is, once mainstream media evaporate, who will be left to provide all the gee-whiz coverage of the next wave of shiny new social networking toys? I’d say you’re on to something here. Trouble is, once mainstream media evaporate, who will be left to provide all the gee-whiz coverage of the next wave of shiny new social networking toys?

]]> By: Vajra http://mediadriving.com/2009/03/22/mainstream-media-and-social-networks-a-predictable-pattern/comment-page-1/#comment-5155 Vajra Sun, 22 Mar 2009 20:08:55 +0000 http://mediadriving.com/?p=209#comment-5155 Spot on. Your analysis parallels my observations exactly. Spot on. Your analysis parallels my observations exactly.

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